India's Strategic Role in Ukraine Peace Efforts

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has drawn the attention of nations worldwide, and as the situation evolves, the role of India is becoming increasingly significant. When Russian President Vladimir Putin visits India at the end of this year or the beginning of next, it will be a crucial moment. India has maintained a stance of neutrality regarding the war, abstaining from anti-Russian resolutions in international forums like the United Nations. This principled position has allowed India to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape while advocating for the respect of international law and a swift resolution to the conflict.

India's approach has not only been about maintaining neutrality but also about leveraging its position to foster economic ties with Russia. Despite the West's sanctions against Russia, India has continued to engage in trade, becoming the second-largest buyer of discounted Russian oil, just behind China. This relationship has led to a remarkable increase in bilateral trade, which soared to an impressive US$65 billion last year, up from a mere $12 billion in 2021. The influx of cheaper oil has significantly contributed to India's robust economic growth, which averaged 8.2% last year. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India is on track to become the world's third-largest economy by 2027.

However, the situation is not without its challenges. While the Indian government has chosen not to comply with Western sanctions, some private financial institutions in India have adhered to these restrictions, complicating the transfer of funds between the two nations. In response, Russia has agreed to invest some of its rupee stockpile in India, which has helped to diversify and rebalance trade between the two countries.

Moreover, India and Russia are working together to develop three logistics corridors, which are essential for enhancing trade and connectivity. Among these, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) stands out as the most promising. However, it is also the most vulnerable, especially with reports suggesting that returning US President Donald Trump may renew his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, which could impact the corridor's effectiveness.

As the world watches the developments in Ukraine, India's role as a mediator and economic partner is becoming more pronounced. The upcoming visit of President Putin could pave the way for deeper ties between India and Russia, potentially influencing the broader geopolitical landscape. As India continues to balance its relationships with both Russia and the West, the path to peace in Ukraine may very well run through New Delhi, highlighting the importance of diplomacy in resolving international conflicts.