Trump's Return Could Transform US-Israel Relations

The relationship between the United States and Israel has long been a focal point of international politics, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. For over a year, the U.S. has provided unwavering support to Israel while also urging restraint in its military actions. However, with the potential return of Donald Trump to the political scene, the dynamics of this relationship may shift dramatically. Trump’s approach to foreign policy has always been characterized by a desire for deals and negotiations, but his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains controversial.

Unlike his predecessors, Trump has never committed to the idea of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state. His Republican Party is staunchly pro-Israel, with some local offices even distributing Israeli flags alongside Trump campaign signs. This is in stark contrast to President Joe Biden, who has faced significant criticism from the left wing of his party for his support of Israel. While Biden appointed Jewish American ambassadors to Israel who occasionally challenged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s choice of evangelical Christian pastor Mike Huckabee as his ambassador reflects a different approach, one that is deeply rooted in biblical support for Israel.

Asher Fredman, an expert from the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, noted that Trump’s administration could adopt an “America First” strategy. This would not only empower Israel in its conflicts but also encourage normalization with Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia. Fredman believes that there is significant potential for shifting paradigms in regional cooperation and applying pressure on Iran.

In October 2023, Biden visited Tel Aviv shortly after Hamas launched a devastating attack on Israel, reaffirming his support for the country. However, he has also criticized Netanyahu for the high civilian casualties resulting from the ongoing war in Gaza. Biden’s administration has exercised its leverage by temporarily withholding military aid to Israel, although this tactic has seen limited success. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin even issued a letter to Israel, urging it to allow more humanitarian assistance into Gaza, but ultimately decided against taking further action.

Allison McManus from the Center for American Progress pointed out that while Biden aimed for near-unconditional support for Israel, he was also cautious not to disrupt the traditional U.S.-Israel relationship. In contrast, Trump’s approach is expected to be less conventional and more unpredictable. Despite his lack of commitment to a Palestinian state, Trump has expressed a desire to broker historic deals, which could lead to pressure on Netanyahu if he remains resistant to a ceasefire.

Experts like Aaron David Miller have described Trump’s foreign policy as opportunistic and transactional. Huckabee’s appointment may serve political purposes, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be in influencing Middle Eastern relations. Even if Trump attempts to negotiate a deal regarding Gaza, he may encounter similar challenges as Biden, including the ongoing threat posed by Hamas and the absence of a new security framework.

Elie Pieprz from the Israel Defense and Security Forum believes that Trump’s potential victory could already be yielding benefits for Israel, such as Qatar distancing itself from Hamas and a softer stance from Iran. Given Biden’s complicated relationship with Israel, Trump is likely to seek to reduce tensions and strengthen ties. Ultimately, Trump’s goal may be to “make the U.S.-Israel relationship great again,” mirroring his domestic political ambitions.

The future of U.S.-Israel relations under a potential Trump administration could lead to significant changes in how the U.S. engages with both Israel and the Palestinian territories. As the political landscape evolves, it is crucial for observers to consider the implications of these shifts, not only for the region but also for global stability. The complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict require careful navigation, and the choices made by U.S. leadership will undoubtedly have lasting effects on peace efforts in the Middle East.