Pakistan's Population Growth: A Future Powerhouse

Pakistan is on the brink of a significant demographic transformation that could reshape its future and position it as a regional powerhouse. As the world witnesses major shifts in population dynamics, Pakistan is set to rise from being the fifth most populous country to the third by the year 2100. According to the United Nations' latest World Population Prospects report published in 2024, the population of Pakistan is projected to soar from 247.5 million in 2023 to an astonishing 511 million by the end of the century. This rapid growth is in stark contrast to the trends observed in neighboring countries, where populations are expected to peak and decline.

One of the key factors contributing to this growth is Pakistan's Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which currently stands at 3.61, significantly above the replacement rate of 2.1. This means that, unlike its neighbors, Pakistan will continue to see an increase in its population for decades to come. While countries like India, Bangladesh, and Iran have already seen their fertility rates drop to or below replacement levels, Pakistan's TFR is not expected to fall below replacement until 2080. Even by 2100, it is projected to be 1.93, making it one of the highest in the world.

This demographic trend has profound implications for Pakistan's youth population. In 2023, there were 140.5 million individuals aged between 0-24, making it the fourth-largest youth population globally. While other countries in the region are experiencing a decline in their youth demographics, Pakistan's youth population is expected to peak at 178.70 million in 2069 before slightly declining to 165.8 million by 2100. This means that Pakistan will maintain a significant youth bulge, while its neighbors face a steep decline of over 60% in their under-25 populations.

As the youth population expands, so too will the prime working-age population, which includes individuals aged between 25 to 64. By 2100, the share of working-age adults in Pakistan is expected to rise from 39% to 51% of the total population. The number of working-age individuals will more than double, increasing from 96.3 million to 260.4 million. This growth presents a unique opportunity for Pakistan to leverage its workforce for economic prosperity, especially as it is projected to surpass China in working-age population by 2100.

Moreover, the dependency ratio, which measures the number of dependents to the working-age population, is expected to improve in Pakistan. While many countries face rising dependency ratios due to aging populations, Pakistan is anticipated to experience a decline in its dependency ratio by 2100. This could ease the burden on the working-age population, allowing for greater investment in economic growth.

However, it is essential to note that Pakistan will also see an increase in its aging population, albeit at a slower rate compared to its neighbors. Currently, Pakistan has the lowest elderly population in the region at 4%, which is expected to rise to only 6% by 2050. In contrast, countries like India and Bangladesh will have a significantly higher percentage of their populations aged 65 and above.

Despite these promising demographic trends, Pakistan faces challenges, particularly in terms of migration. The country currently has the highest negative net migration in the world, with 1.6 million more people leaving than entering in 2023. While this presents challenges such as brain drain, it also offers opportunities to harness the potential of Pakistan's expanding diaspora through targeted investments.

As Pakistan's population continues to grow, it will become one of the most densely populated nations globally, leading to increased pressure on resources such as water and land. Sustainable resource management will be crucial to maintaining living standards and ensuring that the country can support its burgeoning population.

Pakistan stands at a demographic crossroads. With a rapidly growing population and a significant youth bulge, the country has the potential to harness its demographic dividend for economic growth. However, this potential must be matched with strategic planning and sustainable resource management to ensure that the benefits of this growth are realized. The future of Pakistan depends on how well it navigates these challenges and capitalizes on its unique demographic opportunities.