Lebanon's Fragile Stability: The Threat of Civil War

Lebanon has been a nation marked by deep divisions and conflicts, with its history often overshadowed by the specter of civil war. The recent escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah has reignited fears of a return to such turmoil. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the long-standing leader of Hezbollah, in an Israeli strike has further complicated the already fragile situation in the country. This incident has led to a surge in sectarian tensions, particularly as many people have been displaced from the southern regions of Lebanon.

In a recent discussion, Lebanon’s Minister of Public Health, Firass Abiad, emphasized that the current conflict has not created a sectarian divide within society. He pointed out that even among Shiites, who traditionally support Hezbollah, there is growing opposition to the militia's actions. Abiad stated, "There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people." This sentiment reflects a broader discontent that transcends sectarian lines, indicating that many Lebanese citizens are united in their criticism of Hezbollah's approach.

Moreover, Abiad noted that Israel's military actions have inadvertently fostered a sense of solidarity among the diverse communities in Lebanon. He drew parallels between the current situation and the widespread sympathy for Palestinians across the Arab world, even among those who do not support Hamas. He remarked, "What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks... will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based." This solidarity was particularly evident during a recent coordinated attack that resulted in significant casualties, showcasing the resilience of the Lebanese people in the face of adversity.

Despite the ongoing violence, Abiad highlighted a crucial point: the indiscriminate targeting by Israel has failed to achieve its intended goals. Instead, it has led to increased sympathy for those affected, including Hezbollah supporters. He stated, "This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting... would only lead to more sympathy with the 'said' enemies." This perspective sheds light on the complexities of the conflict, where actions taken by one side can have unintended consequences for the other.

The historical context of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is essential to understanding the current situation. Since the Lebanese civil war, Hezbollah has evolved into a significant player in the region, often acting in response to Israeli actions. The group was formed during Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon and has since engaged in multiple confrontations with Israeli forces. Abiad pointed out that the roots of the conflict run deeper than recent events, with unresolved territorial disputes and ongoing violations of Lebanese airspace by Israel contributing to the tensions.

One of the most contentious issues is the Shebaa Farms, a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967. This dispute continues to fuel tensions and complicate the peace process. Abiad argued that Israel's failure to adhere to UN resolutions, particularly Resolution 1701, has provided Hezbollah with a pretext to continue its actions. He stated, "If you go back to the UN resolutions... it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen." This ongoing violation of Lebanese sovereignty remains a significant barrier to peace.

The situation in Lebanon is precarious, with the potential for further escalation always looming. The deep-seated divisions within the country, coupled with external pressures from Israel, create a complex landscape that is difficult to navigate. As the Lebanese people grapple with their identity and the future of their nation, it is crucial for all parties involved to seek dialogue and understanding rather than resorting to violence. Only through cooperation and respect for sovereignty can Lebanon hope to find a path toward lasting peace and stability.