Iran's Supreme Leader Vows Retaliation Against Israel

Following an alleged Israeli air strike in the Syrian capital of Damascus, global attention has turned towards Iran's response. The United States and Israel are closely monitoring Iran's activities and top leadership. Iranian security officials, along with the country's supreme leader, have condemned the April 1 attack as a breach of international obligations and conventions.

During a large gathering on April 10, 2024, marking Eid-Ul-Fitr, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated Iran's stance, vowing to retaliate against Israel for the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Speculation is rife about the nature and timing of Iran's response, with experts and defense analysts suggesting potential indirect actions through Lebanon or allied coalitions, such as drone or missile strikes.

Considering past events, including the death of Iranian General Qasim Solaimani in a U.S. drone strike in January 2020, where Iran responded with missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq, it is unlikely that Iran will directly target Israeli territory. The Iranian leadership is mindful of the potential repercussions of such actions, as seen in the restrained U.S. response to previous provocations.

While expectations are high for Iran's retaliation, it is anticipated that any response will prioritize avoiding direct conflict with Israel to prevent escalation. The timeline for Iran's retaliation is estimated to be within 125 days, with possibilities of action within 60 days or during the first month of the Muslim new year, Muharram-ul-Haram.