Trump and Modi's Impact on Global Power Dynamics

Two key elections in 2020 have the potential to reshape the global power dynamics among China, India, and the US. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is anticipated to secure another term following the Indian elections taking place from April 19 to June 1. Modi's close rapport with US President Donald Trump, who is vying for re-election in November, could further solidify India-US relations. Both leaders share nationalist ideologies, charismatic personas, and a focus on immigration policies.

If Trump and Modi both retain power, the alliance between India and the US is poised to strengthen significantly. In contrast, the relationship between China and the US is strained. Trump's persistent tariffs on Chinese goods, which persisted during Biden's presidency, may escalate if Trump wins a second term. Trump recently hinted at imposing tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports if re-elected, aiming to reduce US reliance on the Chinese economy.

During his initial tenure, Trump prohibited US companies from investing in Chinese firms that posed security risks. A potential continuation of this policy could hinder China's economic recovery efforts, particularly as the nation grapples with a weakening economy and high youth unemployment rates. China's aspirations to lead in artificial intelligence by 2030 could face setbacks due to US restrictions on American tech investments in China.

In conclusion, the outcomes of the Indian and US elections this year have the potential to reshape global alliances and impact the economic landscape, particularly in the context of the China-India-US triangular power dynamic.