India Prepares for Above-Average Rainfall in September

MUMBAI: India is preparing for a month of above-average rainfall in September, following a period of surplus rains in August. The India Meteorological Department has indicated that rainfall this month is expected to exceed 109% of the 50-year average. This forecast raises concerns for farmers, as excessive rainfall can adversely affect summer-sown crops like rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, which are typically harvested around mid-September.

Crop damage due to heavy rains can lead to food inflation, a significant issue for a country where agriculture plays a vital role in the economy. However, there is a silver lining; the increased rainfall may enhance soil moisture levels, which is beneficial for the planting of winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpea. India stands as the world's second-largest producer of wheat, sugar, and rice, and any losses from excessive rainfall could compel the government to extend existing export restrictions on these essential commodities.

In recent months, India has experienced a notable increase in rainfall, with July seeing a 9% rise and August recording a 15.3% surplus compared to the average. The northwestern and central regions of the country have been particularly affected, experiencing heavy rains that resulted in flooding in several states. Since the onset of the monsoon season on June 1, India has recorded 6.9% more rainfall than average, which is crucial for replenishing reservoirs and aquifers.

The annual monsoon is the lifeblood of India's nearly $3.5 trillion economy, providing approximately 70% of the rainfall necessary for agricultural activities. Without irrigation, nearly half of the farmland relies solely on the monsoon rains, which typically occur from June to September. As the monsoon season progresses, it generally begins to retreat by mid-September from the northwestern state of Rajasthan, concluding across the country by mid-October. However, this year’s forecast suggests that the withdrawal of the monsoon may be delayed.

According to the meteorological department, good rainfall activity is expected to commence over Rajasthan and Gujarat around September 15. This delay in the monsoon's withdrawal could pose risks for summer-sown crops that are nearing harvest. A Mumbai-based dealer from a global trade house has expressed concerns that rainfall during this critical period could damage the ripe crops, leading to potential losses for farmers.

While the forecast for above-average rainfall in September may bring benefits in terms of soil moisture for winter crops, it also poses significant risks for summer crops that are ready for harvest. Farmers and policymakers alike must remain vigilant and prepared to mitigate the impacts of excessive rainfall, ensuring food security and economic stability in the face of unpredictable weather patterns.