Pakistan Meteorological Department predicts monsoon season forecast

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has released its forecast for the upcoming monsoon season, predicting normal to above normal rainfall and nearly normal temperatures. Climate indicators point towards a neutral phase with a potential shift towards La Niña towards the end of the season. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain positive throughout the season.

According to the PMD, most parts of Pakistan can expect normal to above normal rainfall, with higher levels in upper Punjab and lower Sindh. Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan may experience near-normal rainfall, while Balochistan could see slightly above normal rainfall.

While daytime maximum temperatures are predicted to be normal nationwide, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan may experience warmer than usual temperatures. Nighttime temperatures are expected to be above normal, especially in these regions and southwestern Balochistan.

Impacts of the forecasted weather include potential snowmelt in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir leading to increased river flow. Farmers are advised to manage irrigation carefully due to rising temperatures affecting soil moisture. The onset of rains towards the end of the season is expected to normalize high temperatures experienced at the beginning.

During the season, strong winds, dust storms, and gusts are likely, with a possibility of riverine floods in major river catchment areas. Flash floods may occur in hill torrent regions and urban areas of Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and KP due to heavy rainfall events.

As Pakistan prepares for the monsoon season, the PMD's forecast provides valuable insights for residents and authorities to prepare for potential weather-related challenges. By staying informed and following recommended precautions, individuals and communities can mitigate risks and ensure safety during the upcoming season.